Extract - A risk assessment of the Piql Preservation Service

4.3

Terms related to the Scenario-based Approach

Term

Definition

The process of mapping all the relevant elements to be included in a scenario to ensure the validity of a given assessment and the ability to make meaningful conclusions about the object of analysis, and ensuring the selection of scenarios suitable to address the problem. The process of writing out the details of the elements of a given scenario found relevant during the process of scenario development. The process of drawing conclusions based on the findings identified in the scenario descriptions and, in turn, make relevant recommendations.

Scenario development

Scenario description

Scenario analysis

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Simplifications and Specifications

5.1 Geography Piql Services is a global organisation, and to divide the geography into more manageable groupings, the three geographical zones operated with in this assessment is North, Middle and South. This division is based on the following classifications; climate, development level and political stability. Climate was chosen as the main classifier, as it is deemed to be the most stable indicator over time, even considering climate change. Together these three indicators give an adequate description of the characteristics of a country. Climate gives relevant information about the geographical setting; development level encompasses aspects such as economy, education and health; and political stability incorporates issues of government and politics, and to an extent; past history, culture and demographics. The geographical zones will serve to illustrate that a scenario plausible to happen at one location within a zone, can also easily happen in any other part of same zone. As a result of this assessment, a Piql Partner can by determining which zone it belongs to, easily see which threats and hazards may threaten their production or storage facilities, and thus get an indication of what to include in their own risk and vulnerability assessments.

Figure 5.1: Details of the indicators for the different zones Zone Example regions Climate

Developmental level

Political stability

Temperate and subarctic . Annual mean temp.: 10°C. Possible hazards: Earthquake, volcanic activity, flood, hurricane, tornado, tsunami, drought with extreme temperatures, blizzards, avalanche

High. High degree of accountability to population, absence of violence/terrorism, high government effectiveness, rule of law, control of corruption, very stable borders. Possible threats: Terrorism, insider theft in low-scoring countries.

High. Strong economy, sophisticated infrastructure, stable energy supply, high standard on road network, sophisticated Ecom networks, high degree of law and order, proper crisis management. Possible hazards/threats: Loss of utilities, theft, espionage, sabotage.

North America, Europe, East Asia (China, Japan)

NORTH

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