"A risk assessment of the Piql Services" by FFI

6.4 Final Selection of Scenario Classes

The purpose of the scenarios chosen is to identify and analyse vulnerabilities and security challenges faced by the Piql Preservation Services today and for 500 years during production, transportation and storage. Based on the discussion above we have made the following selection of scenarios:  Accident : An unfortunate incident that happens unexpectedly and unintentionally. Something that happens by chance or without apparent cause [44]. By accident we mean an event with negative consequences, be it loss of life or material damage and economic loss, which was unintended. The cause can be, but not limited to, human error.  Technical error : Technical error can cause a cease of operations or functionality in a system, which here has a negative effect.  Natural disasters : A sudden natural accident or catastrophe that causes great damage or loss of life.  Crime : An action which constitutes a serious offence against an individual or a state and is punishable by law [44]. It can be politically motivated, economically motivated or simply due to a wish to inflict pain, perhaps due to illness.  Sabotage : Intentional destruction, paralysis or shut down of equipment, materials, facilities or activities, or intentional disarmament of persons, executed by or for a foreign state, organisation or group [18 § 3,4]. Wilfully or deliberately destroy or obstruct, especially for political or military advantage [44].  Espionage : The gathering of information by the use of secret and underhanded means in an intelligence capacity [18 § 3,3].  Terrorism : Illegal use of, or the threat of the use of, force and violence against persons or property in an attempt to place pressure on a country’s government, population or society at large to reach political, religious or ideological goals [18 § 3,5].  Armed conflict : Armed conflict is a conflict between states or groups that involves the use of armed force. This term captures better the different types of conflict that are relevant in today’s threat environment than the more traditional and more confining term ―war‖ [45].  Nuclear war : Nuclear war is a warlike state in which the main means are weapons of mass destruction. Nine is the number of scenario classes required to map the entire spectrum of threats faced by the Piql Preservation Services. The final number of specific scenarios that will be described is even higher, partly because it is necessary to include more than one natural disaster. Describing the scenarios in detail is the final step in the morphological analysis method applied in this report. Morphological analysis is used as a tool to clarify the fundamental conditions or premises for a given scenario, and from these results we can write a detailed description of the future event [39 p.10]. As a final step we can analyse the findings in the completed scenarios, i.e. which vulnerabilities and security challenges the Piql Preservation Services is faced with in order to give recommendations of development tasks to help solve these. However, the scenario descriptions must first be written out.

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FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707