"A risk assessment of the Piql Services" by FFI

The parameters and corresponding values are summarised in table 6.3 below.

Actor

Goal/purpose

Method

Means

State

Political power

Physical destruction

Conv. weapons

Network

Market power

Physical manipulation

Non-conv. weapons

Company

Economic gain

Logical destruction

Hand or power tools

Individual

Idiosyncratic interest

Logical manipulation

Malicious transmitters

Insider

Software tools

Monetary means

Table 6.3 Matrix for analysis of scenario classes of intentional acts

The analysis phase is now completed, and we move on to the first step of the synthesis phase. First we do a consistency analysis to narrow down the morphological space (all theoretical possibilities that exist in the matrix) to include only plausible ones. The total theoretical possibilities in the matrix here is 4 x 4 x 5 x 6 = 480 theoretically possible combinations. To reduce the complexity of trying to find consistency in all parameter values at once, we evaluate pairings of values separately and compare them one by one. We now have the solution space for the problem. The consistency matrix can be found in appendix A.2. The next step is to feed this information into an IT tool developed for use in MA at FFI, which finds consistent parings on all four parameters, not just couples of values. We are then presented with the outcome matrix for our problem, which serves as the framework for describing concrete challenges and risks. The framework in itself is quite generic, i.e. it only includes the main factors needed to describe a completed scenario. The outcome matrix can be found in appendix A.3. Our consistency analysis produced the necessarily large number of 70 consistent solutions on all parameters, i.e. 70 scenarios. This number is perhaps abnormally large for a morphological box this size, but it was to be expected, as the broad definitions of the parameters are made to include so many features. Regardless, it necessitates a reduction by going through the scenarios in search of common denominators in order to put them into scenario classes. Having done a qualitative evaluation of all the scenarios, we have arrived at the following scenario classes as relevant threats to the Piql Preservation Services. As with the hazards associated to issues of safety, these threats related to issues of security presented in the following will form part of the sample space when the final selection of scenario classes is chosen and the specific scenario descriptions are written out.

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FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707