"A risk assessment of the Piql Services" by FFI

6.3 Scenario Method

To make a representative and accurate selection of scenarios, one which we can trust will cover most or all of the entire spectrum of risk against the safety and security of the Piql Preservation Services, we have chosen a method of scenario selection known as morphological analysis. Morphological analysis is described as a non-quantitative method to structure and analyse complex problems within a wide number of subject areas [39 p.7-8, 40 p.10]. This section will give a brief introduction to the process and utilisation of the method, after which morphological analysis will be applied to the research question in this report. 16 Morphological analysis (MA) is best described as a collective term for a variety of different techniques, all of which have a common purpose: to establish a complete overview of all the possible aspects and solutions for a given problem [40 p.10]. The way the method accomplishes this task is by producing a set of scenario classes, defined as a set of challenges or a category of possible outcomes that have important common denominators and which therefore naturally belong together. In this way MA goes beyond the individual scenarios. It is close to impossible to create an infinite number of scenarios which satisfy the scenario criteria of being consistent, relevant and plausible, that can rightly claim to cover all risk to a certain entity. Instead, by creating these scenario classes, MA is a method to better map the sample space and ensure an adequate breadth in the scenario selection [40 p.9]. The goal is to ensure that all relevant challenges are represented without making the total set of scenarios unmanageably large. MA tries to extend the space for possible outcomes in order to reduce the risk of omitting important scenarios, however unlikely they may be [39 p.10]. Naturally, the more unlikely they are, the easier it is to overlook them, which underlines the importance of correctly applying a method, such as MA, which helps us avoid this mistake. In our risk assessment the uncertainty of which risks might harm the Piql Preservation Services is quite high, and it is absurd to believe that we are able to ensure coverage of all possible outcomes. History has taught us that there will always be developments and events that are not foreseen. The aim is simply to reduce the risk of leaving out important scenarios and developments, but the risk can never be eliminated completely [39 p.10]. Together the scenario classes represent the total space of possible outcomes for a given problem area. This means that there are no scenarios that cannot be assigned into one or another scenario class, and that there does not exist a scenario which falls outside of this space. The sum of scenarios is therefore meant to be both exhaustive and mutually exclusive. As stated, the morphological method is a collective term for many different techniques. The technique which figures most promptly in this report is the morphological box. This technique consists of two phases – the analysis phase and the synthesis phase – each of which contains three steps.

16 For a more comprehensive description of the method, see [41, 40, 39, 42]

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FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707